Crisil: India's FY26 Retail Inflation Seen at 2.5%

• Crisil forecasts India's retail inflation (CPI) to average 2.5% in the 2025-26 fiscal year.
• This projection is due to the fading base effect on food prices, though weak crude prices and GST cuts will help anchor fuel and core inflation.
• CPI inflation increased to 0.7% in November from 0.3% in October, driven by slower food deflation and higher fuel inflation.
• RBI Governor Sanjay Malhotra characterized the current period as a "goldilocks period" of high growth and low inflation.
• The RBI cut the repo rate by 25 basis points to 5.25% and revised its CPI inflation forecast for 2025-26 to 2.0%.

Why It Matters: Inflation forecasts dictate future consumer purchasing power and economic stability.