•Global crude oil prices surged above USD 90/barrel due to geopolitical tensions and supply disruptions, including closure of Strait of Hormuz.
•India, heavily reliant on crude imports, faces heightened vulnerability with over half its supply routed via the Strait of Hormuz.
•Oil marketing companies (OMCs) are expected to see pressure on integrated margins as retail fuel prices remain unchanged despite rising crude costs.
•Upstream oil producers are poised to benefit from elevated crude prices and a weaker rupee, boosting profitability without adverse government intervention.
•For every Rs 1/litre decline in marketing margins, EPS for major OMCs could fall by 20-24%; Indian Oil Corporation is relatively better placed.
