Indian Steel Makers Eye 2026 Safeguard Duty Amid Price Pressure

• Indian steel prices are weakening, with hot-rolled coil down 8% since September, impacting margins after the interim 12% safeguard duty expired in November.
• Asian steel spreads are at 15-year lows, 40% below average, suggesting prices may be near a bottom, with hopes for recovery if China cuts production.
• High Chinese steel exports, exceeding 100 MT in 11 months of 2025 due to weak domestic demand, continue to pressure global prices.
• India's steel consumption grew 11-12% CAGR over four years, with 7-8% expected, but capacity additions require sustained demand to prevent oversupply.
• Indian steel makers are hoping for the reintroduction of a safeguard duty in 2026 to support domestic prices, as the previous duty provided a 9% premium.

Why It Matters: Indian steel makers seek safeguard duty in 2026 to counter weak prices and high Chinese exports, despite strong domestic demand growth.