US Recession Odds Hit 49%: Economists Divided on $100 Oil Impact Amid Iran Conflict

• Moody's Analytics places US recession probability at 49% within 12 months, citing weakening data and oil price surge.
• Mark Zandi warns that the economy showed strain before military escalation, with soft economic data and a weak labor market.
• Historically, every US recession since WWII (excluding pandemic) was preceded by an oil price spike, nearing 50% threshold.
• Economists are split: some warn US can't handle $100 oil long, while others say the economy is more resilient.
• Jason Furman argues the US economy is stable, less oil-intensive, and unlikely to be dramatically altered by current shocks.