AI Chip Shortage to Drive Up Smartphone Prices, Cut Shipments by 2026: Counterpoint

• Counterpoint Research forecasts global smartphone shipments to fall 2.1% in 2026 due to an AI-driven memory chip shortage.
• Average selling price (ASP) of smartphones is projected to rise 6.9% in 2026, nearly doubling previous estimates.
• Surging AI demand for DRAM from Nvidia, SK Hynix, and Samsung Electronics is tightening supply, impacting both AI data centers and smartphones.
• Bill of materials costs have already increased by 20-30% for low-end phones; memory prices could climb another 40% by Q2 2026.
• Manufacturers may downgrade components or push higher-priced models to offset costs; Apple and Samsung are better positioned to weather the impact.

Why It Matters: AI-driven memory chip scarcity will significantly increase smartphone prices and reduce shipments by 2026.