Big Tech vs. Publishers: India's AI Licensing Deals Face Structural Imbalance

• Experts warn of a structural imbalance in India's AI licensing deals, favoring large publishers over smaller ones due to fragmented ecosystems and regulatory uncertainty.
• Globally, publisher licensing contributes a low single-digit percentage (0.5%-2%) to AI company revenues, even with high-value deals for major newsrooms.
• Rishi Sen estimates India's AI-publisher licensing market to grow from ₹75–200 crore in 2025 to ₹200–500 crore in 2026, driven by policy shifts towards blanket licenses and royalties.
• Most deals are hybrid, combining upfront annual licenses or minimum guarantees with variable components tied to usage or monetization, a trend expected in India.
• A key distinction is made between content used for AI model training (less likely to generate royalties) and content repeatedly retrieved or grounded in user responses (more justified for usage-linked payments).

Why It Matters: India's AI licensing deals risk excluding smaller publishers, highlighting the need for balanced regulation.