BCA Research Warns: Iran, Not Venezuela, Poses Major Oil Market Risk

• BCA Research's Marko Papic suggests Venezuela's oil-related geopolitical situation will stabilize, with US-Venezuela talks indicating a possible resolution.
• Papic highlights the US's shift in commodity policy, making oil access a strategic issue rather than just a market transaction, impacting global oil markets.
• Russia's power projection in the oil sector is limited, and China can source oil elsewhere, reducing their impact on the Venezuela situation.
• Markets are underestimating the geopolitical risk associated with Iran, which could lead to major instability in the Middle East if the US continues interventions.
• Brent crude prices are unlikely to fall below $70 by year-end due to geopolitical risks, OPEC's stance, and Saudi Arabia's financial needs.

Why It Matters: Investors should focus on Iran's underestimated risk and US strategic oil policy, not just Venezuela headlines.