India-US Trade Deal Stalls: Tariffs Soar, Agriculture & Russia Oil Major Hurdles

• Despite early 2025 optimism for a major India-US trade deal and a $500 billion target, the agreement remains stalled, with India now facing heavy US tariffs, often exceeding those on China.
• Key hurdles include the US demand for India to open its agricultural market (GMOs, dairy), which India resists due to strong farmer politics and upcoming state elections.
• The US imposed additional tariffs, bringing some duties to 50%, citing India's purchase of oil from Russia, which the US claims aids Russia in the Ukraine war. India defends its energy policy.
• The stalled deal impacts both nations: India faces market volatility, rupee pressure, and potential GDP growth reduction (0.5-0.6%), while US consumers pay higher prices.
• Experts like Nomura's Sonal Varma highlight the US need for a reliable supply chain outside China, with India as a strong alternative, yet talks remain deadlocked.

Why It Matters: India-US trade deal remains stalled due to agricultural disputes and Russia oil purchases, impacting both economies.