India-US Trade: Tariffs Reverse Expectations, Exports Defy Logic in Unusual Pattern

• India-US trade in May-Nov 2025 showed an unusual pattern: exports fell during low tariffs and partially recovered during high tariffs.
• Total exports decreased by 20.7%, from $8.8 billion in May to $7.0 billion in November.
• Exports plummeted 37.7% (to $5.5 billion) from May to September due to uncertainty over impending tariffs.
• Despite 50% tariffs, exports recovered 27.3% (to $7.0 billion) from September to November as uncertainty ended, leading to adaptation.
• GTRI warns this recovery is an adjustment to difficult circumstances, not permanent strength, susceptible to future demand or policy changes.

Why It Matters: India-US trade saw exports defy tariff logic, driven by uncertainty, not tariff levels, a temporary adjustment.