India's Consumer Sector: Policy Meets Behavior, Recovery Underway

• Q3FY26 shows India's consumption recovery is a stress test, with policy levers exhausted by September 2025.
• Credit card spends rose 11.5% year-on-year to ₹1.89 lakh crore in November 2025, indicating careful discretionary spending.
• Digital transactions now dominate, accounting for nearly 60% of credit card spends, signifying a structural shift.
• Auto sales show divergence: two-wheelers, three-wheelers, and tractors surged, reflecting improved rural incomes, while passenger vehicles grew modestly.
• FMCG volume growth is strengthening due to GST rationalization and softened input costs, leading to healthier consumption cycles.

Why It Matters: India's consumer sector shows a cautious yet durable recovery, driven by policy, affordability, and changing behavior.