RBI Likely to Pause Repo Rate in February Amid Rupee, Inflation Concerns: Economists

• Economists from Nomura, Citi India, SBI, JPMorgan, and Pronab Sen expect RBI's MPC to keep the repo rate unchanged on February 6, 2026.
• Key factors influencing the pause include currency pressure, global volatility, and capital flow trends.
• Chinoy noted that rupee pressure is a symptom of insufficient capital inflows, particularly FDI, to finance the current account deficit.
• Sonal Varma of Nomura highlighted uncertainty with the new CPI series, which could show inflation 50 bps higher, supporting a wait-and-watch approach.
• Soumya Kanti Ghosh of SBI emphasized bond yields and liquidity transmission as key issues, suggesting better central bank communication.

Why It Matters: RBI is expected to pause rate hikes in February, prioritizing rupee stability and inflation assessment.