Rising Oil Prices Threaten India's Trade Deficit; SBI Predicts Metal Correction

• SBI's Soumya Kanti Ghosh warns sustained crude oil prices at $100-110/barrel could significantly widen India's trade deficit.
• Ghosh expects the Indian crude basket to remain in this higher range for the next 2-3 months, a sharp jump from the FY26 average of $70/barrel.
• Every one-dollar increase in crude leads to a $1.5-2 billion rise in oil imports, potentially adding $30-40 billion to import costs.
• Ghosh predicts a correction for gold and silver, noting they haven't effectively hedged against inflation or geopolitical stress.
• The strong US dollar and rising US bond yields are reducing the appeal of non-yielding assets like precious metals.