Aluminum Deficit to Boost Prices; Vedanta Top Pick: Kotak's Sumangal Nevatia

• A structural global deficit in aluminum is driving the metals outlook, making Vedanta a top investment idea.
• Aluminum has the strongest fundamentals among major commodities due to constrained supply growth and steady demand (2-3% annually).
• Production is limited by China's capacity cap and power shortages/lack of long-term electricity contracts for smelters outside China.
• Demand is reinforced by energy transition spending, data centers, and substitution from copper due to its high price ratio.
• Vedanta is expected to see 25-30% upside, benefiting from aluminum, zinc, and silver, reduced promoter debt, and strong cash flows.