IOC Stock Could Plummet 49% in Bear Case, Warns Goldman Sachs Amid Earnings Risks

• Goldman Sachs warns IOC stock could fall 49% in a bear-case scenario due to persistent earnings risks.
• Recent ₹10/litre excise duty cut offers some relief, but earnings pressure remains high for OMCs.
• Breakeven for OMCs improved to $78/barrel after duty cut, still below current crude prices of $122/barrel.
• EBITDA loss run-rate for integrated OMCs remains elevated, exceeding peak losses of CY22.
• Goldman Sachs sees least favorable risk-reward for IOC; maintains 'Neutral' on BPCL and HPCL.