Neeraj Seth's 2026 Outlook: Fiscal Expansion, Fading Rate Cuts, AI Rethink

• Neeraj Seth identifies three global forces for 2026: sustained fiscal expansion, nearing end of monetary easing, and an AI reappraisal.
• Developed markets like the US, Europe, and Japan continue expansionary fiscal policies, while global rate cuts are expected to be limited.
• The AI theme will shift from early excitement to scrutinizing capital expenditure returns and identifying true beneficiaries.
• For India, Seth foresees an improving capital expenditure cycle, especially in the industrial sector, and remains positive on financials.
• He advises selectivity in Indian IT stocks, warning of 'AI substitution risk' for large firms and favoring niche AI implementers.

Why It Matters: 2026 investment themes: fiscal expansion, limited rate cuts, AI scrutiny, and selective India opportunities.