Oil Disruption May Ease Slowly, LNG Supply Hit Could Last Years: Rystad Energy

• Rystad Energy predicts crude oil prices could remain at $110–$120 per barrel for months, even if West Asia conflict ends, due to slow supply normalization and lack of alternatives to key routes like the Strait of Hormuz.
• The gas market faces a bigger challenge, with damage to Qatar's LNG facilities potentially causing a deficit for years; 17% of Qatar's LNG capacity is affected, meaning 12 million tonnes won't hit the market in the next 3-5 years.
• While most oil and gas facilities (except Ras Laffan) were not damaged and could come back online in weeks, the LNG market, previously expected to be oversupplied, now faces a significant structural shift to a deficit.
• The market is experiencing high volatility due to uncertainty in demand and supply fundamentals, making it difficult to predict prices accurately.
• Brent crude prices are expected to hover around $110–$120 for the next couple of months; pre-war levels of $60–$70 are not anticipated until Q4.