Supreme Court Tariff Ruling: How Stock Market Could React

• US Supreme Court's tariff ruling, expected potentially on Friday, February 20, could significantly impact the stock market.
• JPMorgan predicts four scenarios for the S&P 500 based on the ruling, with varying probabilities and market reactions.
• Most likely (64% chance): Tariffs struck down and immediately replaced, leading to an initial rally then limited gains.
• Second most likely (26% chance): Tariffs upheld, potentially causing a 0.3%-0.5% S&P 500 decline and bigger yield curve moves.
• Least likely (1% chance): Tariffs struck down with no replacement, potentially boosting S&P 500 by 1.5%-2% and favoring Russell 2000.