Manulife: US Fed 'hawkish' cut, India 2026 market neutral

• Manulife Investments expects a "hawkish" 25-basis point US Fed rate cut in December 2025, signaling caution and data-dependency rather than a steady easing cycle.
• Fiscal policy challenges, including large budget deficits, are pushing bond investors to price in higher term premiums and yields.
• Political dynamics, such as President Trump's calls for deeper cuts, could lead traders to anticipate a more dovish "post-Powell Federal Reserve" from mid-2025.
• Manulife holds a neutral outlook for the Indian market in 2026, with gains dependent on earnings growth rather than valuation expansion due to limited upside room.
• A key risk for India is crude sourcing; reduced Russian oil supply could lead to higher import prices, currency weakening, and impact foreign investor returns.

Why It Matters: US Fed's cautious rate cut and India's neutral market outlook impact your financial future.