IEA Trims Record Oil Glut Forecast for First Time Since May

• IEA trimmed its forecast for the global oil supply surplus for the first time in months, citing strengthening demand and slowing output growth.
• The 2026 surplus estimate was reduced by 231,000 barrels/day to 3.815 million b/d, though it remains a record.
• Factors include OPEC+ pausing supply increases, reduced rival output estimates, and a stronger global oil demand outlook.
• Global oil supplies declined by 1.5 million b/d from record levels due to drops in sanctioned nations and unplanned outages.
• Despite the trim, the projected surplus for next year is unprecedented, with oil inventories at a four-year high, partly from sanctioned producers.

Why It Matters: This forecast revision impacts global oil markets and future energy costs.