Economic Survey: Low Inflation Expected, RBI Rate Cuts Likely

• The Economic Survey 2025-26, presented on January 29, predicts low inflation in the upcoming financial year due to good supply and GST rate changes.
• India's inflation averaged 1.3% in December, remaining below RBI's 2-6% target for the fourth consecutive month, with food prices declining for the seventh month.
• A new CPI series with a 2024 base year will be introduced from February 12, giving more weight to non-food items to reduce the impact of food price volatility.
• IMF data suggests inflation could average 2% this fiscal year and not exceed 4% next year; Moneycontrol poll also predicts around 4% by FY27.
• Experts and CXOs are more concerned about global uncertainties (US market, trade restrictions) than domestic inflation, expecting RBI to cut interest rates further.

Why It Matters: Economic Survey forecasts low inflation and potential RBI rate cuts, despite global uncertainties.