India's 2025 Ends Mixed: Consumption Strong, Manufacturing Slows

• India's economy in late 2025 showed a clear divergence: strong consumption but softening manufacturing momentum.
• High-frequency indicators like GST collections (Rs 1.74 lakh crore, up 6.1%), UPI transactions (record 21.6 billion), and automobile sales confirm robust consumer demand.
• Manufacturing activity slowed to a 24-month low (HSBC India PMI 55.0), driven by weaker export growth and reduced business optimism.
• New export orders saw their slowest rise in 14 months, reflecting global demand issues and fewer destination markets.
• Manufacturers are cautiously optimistic for 2026, but overall business sentiment has dropped to a 3.5-year low.

Why It Matters: India's economy closes 2025 with resilient consumption but a slowdown in manufacturing and exports.