US Waiver Boosts India's Russian Oil Imports, But Middle East Exposure & China Competition Persist

• US grants 30-day waiver for Indian refiners to continue buying Russian oil, offering short-term supply relief.
• Waiver allows India to increase Russian crude purchases, potentially pushing imports to 1.6-2.0 million bpd.
• India's high reliance on Middle Eastern supply (50% via Strait of Hormuz) leaves it vulnerable to disruptions.
• Competition from Chinese buyers for Russian barrels and narrowing discounts limit India's potential gains.
• Indian refiners will prioritize domestic fuel availability, meaning increased crude may not immediately translate to higher product exports.