Gulf Tensions Could Trigger 5% Market Drop, US-Iran War Likely: Narnolia CIO

• Narnolia's Shailendra Kumar warns of a potential 5% market correction if Gulf tensions persist without resolution.
• Kumar does not rule out a full-blown US-Iran war, citing the US-Israel strike on Iranian leaders as a crossed red line.
• He notes that the threshold between calibrated strikes and outright war has already been tested, increasing volatility.
• Despite uncertainty, Kumar advises accumulating quality large-cap stocks, as Indian equities have seen 18 months of time correction.
• A 10-15% Nifty return by December 2026 is still a realistic expectation, driven by domestic economic strength and earnings growth.