•Markets are focusing on winners and losers as Iran risk reshapes investment strategies, with investors pricing in outcomes rather than debating geopolitics.
•Commodity exporters are set to gain, while energy importers like India, Japan, South Korea, and Turkey face pressure from higher crude prices impacting trade balances and inflation.
•Trade exposure adds risk, with Turkey particularly vulnerable due to energy import dependence and trade links with Iran.
•Oil at $100 is a "clear and present danger" due to limited OPEC spare capacity; prolonged escalation could keep prices elevated.
•20% of global LNG flows through the Strait of Hormuz, posing a major disruption risk for Asian buyers if affected, while gold and safe havens are in demand.
