Nifty's Projected Long-Term Growth Reaches Decade's Third-Lowest Point at 10.5%
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Nifty's Long-Term Growth Hits Decade Low of 10.5%; Market Polarized
M
Moneycontrol•01-04-2026, 16:26
Nifty's Long-Term Growth Hits Decade Low of 10.5%; Market Polarized
•Nifty-50's implied long-term free-cash-flow growth rate has fallen to 10.5%, the third-lowest in a decade, matching March 2020, 2021, and 2017 troughs.
•Bernstein highlights a changed backdrop from early 2021, with current geopolitical conflict, fuel supply risks, and fiscal pressures making near-term valuations unreliable.
•Investor mindset has shifted from 'bottom-fishing' to navigating 'prolonged conflict,' with geopolitics now the dominant market variable.
•Large-caps have traded below their 10-year average relative to mid-caps since May 2023, the longest stretch since 2019, indicating a regular pattern.
•Market polarization shows stocks at extremes: many with low near-term EBITDA growth but optimistic longer-term assumptions, driven by a 'good base year (FY25) followed by a bad year (FY26)' mismatch.
