Moneycontrol Pro Weekender: Is This Conflict Following Historical Patterns?
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Middle East War: Markets Hold Nerve, But Oil & Inflation Risks Loom for India
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Moneycontrol•07-03-2026, 08:39
Middle East War: Markets Hold Nerve, But Oil & Inflation Risks Loom for India
•Despite Middle East war risks, global markets, including MSCI India, show resilience, with historical data suggesting positive returns for Sensex post-conflict.
•Analysts note that the peak of conflict can offer an opportunity to increase equity exposure, but warn of adverse impacts on the Indian exchange rate.
•The speed of market stabilization hinges on the duration of the conflict and its impact on oil supply, with fears of oil reaching $200 a barrel.
•A prolonged war could significantly affect India's inflation, current account deficit, and IT sector, with Goldman Sachs predicting a 2% earnings hit for every 20% rise in Brent Crude.
•Israel's market surprisingly thrives, reflecting investor belief that the conflict could resolve long-term threats, while uncertainty surrounds the Iranian regime's future.