Stock Market Jitters Before Budget: Data Reveals Pre-Budget Decline & Post-Budget Recovery

• The stock market typically experiences pressure and uncertainty leading up to the Union Budget, a trend observed over many years.
• Historical data from 2010-2022 shows Nifty's average return in the week before the budget is -0.52%, with declines in four of the last five years.
• Fear of policy changes, tax rate adjustments, and subsidy cuts, along with rumors, contribute to investor caution and profit booking.
• Budget day sees high intraday volatility (average 2.65%), but markets often recover, with an average gain of 1.36% in the week following the budget.
• Experts anticipate a balanced Budget 2026, focusing on capital expenditure in infrastructure, defense, railways, and support for MSMEs and green energy.

Why It Matters: Stock markets often decline before the budget due to policy uncertainty but typically recover post-budget.