Prabhudas Lilladher Recommends 'Accumulate' on Lupin, Sets Rs 2400 Target

• Lupin's Q3FY26 EBITDA reached Rs22bn, a 62% YoY increase and 13% above estimates, driven by record US sales.
• Profitability saw a significant turnaround, with EBITDA increasing ~5x from FY23-26 due to better product mix, niche US launches, USFDA clearances, and cost optimization.
• Three key products (gTolvaptan, gMirabegron, gSpiriva) contribute approximately 50% to total EPS but will face competition from H2FY27/FY28.
• Despite a niche pipeline including 505 (b) (2) opportunities and biosimilars, Lupin's PAT is projected to decline over FY26-28E.
• Prabhudas Lilladher downgrades Lupin to 'Accumulate' from 'BUY' with a target price of Rs2,400 (23x FY28E EPS).