•A government source states that the weak rupee, not crude oil at $80 per barrel, is the 'bigger challenge' for FY27 fiscal math.
•The rupee hit a record low of Rs 92.15/$ on March 4, driven by global uncertainties and Middle East geopolitical tensions.
•A depreciating rupee increases import costs, leading to higher government subsidy payouts, particularly for fertilizers and LPG.
•While $80 oil is manageable, crude prices reaching $100 per barrel could necessitate excise duty cuts and impact OMCs.
•Middle East tensions, especially the Strait of Hormuz crisis, threaten global crude and LNG supply, potentially widening India’s current account deficit and stoking inflation.
