Economic Survey 2025-26: India Faces 3 Global Scenarios, Warns of Growth Risks

• Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman tabled the Economic Survey 2025-26, highlighting global growth risks and potential delayed impacts of ongoing turbulence.
• The survey outlines three global scenarios for 2026, assigning probabilities to each, driven by intensified geopolitical competition, complex security environments, and financial vulnerabilities.
• Scenario 1 (40-45% probability): 'Business as in 2025' but increasingly fragile, with minor shocks escalating due to a thinner safety margin, requiring active government intervention.
• Scenario 2 (40-45% probability): Disorderly multipolar breakdown with intensified strategic rivalry, unresolved Russia-Ukraine conflict, coercive trade, and nationalized policies.
• Scenario 3 (10-20% probability): Systemic shock cascade from financial, technological (AI-infrastructure), and geopolitical stresses, potentially worse than the 2008 financial crisis.

Why It Matters: Economic Survey warns of 3 global scenarios for 2026, from fragile stability to systemic shock, urging India's preparedness.