Why Trump Hesitated on Iran: High Risks, Low Reward for Regime Change

• US backed down from a full-scale attack on Iran due to high risks, including potential for regional conflict, skyrocketing oil prices, and targeting of US troops.
• Major General Shashi Asthana (Retd.) analyzed that regime change in Iran is beyond America's grasp, as the Iranian regime is resilient and has strong internal control.
• Iran's full military capacity, including missiles capable of reaching US bases, and the IRGC's loyalty to Supreme Leader Khamenei, make a 'Survival War' scenario highly dangerous for the US.
• The 'Bangladesh model' of inciting internal discontent for regime change failed in Iran because the IRGC fully supports the regime, unlike the army in Bangladesh.
• US intelligence networks would be severely damaged by the deaths of CIA and Mossad agents, a key factor in Trump's decision to avoid a large-scale conflict.

Why It Matters: Trump's hesitation on Iran stems from the high risk of a failed regime change and severe US casualties.