El Niño Threatens 2026 Monsoon: India Faces Weak Rains, Record Heat

• El Niño conditions are likely to develop in 2026 during India's monsoon season (July-September), with NOAA indicating a 48% chance. IMD also forecasts similar conditions.
• El Niño typically leads to a weak monsoon, severely impacting India's agriculture, which relies heavily on rainfall for 51% of its land and 40% of output.
• Experts warn a 2026 El Niño, combined with climate change, could set new global temperature records, following the record heat of 2023-24.
• WMO predicts an 80% chance of 2025-2029 being record-warm years, with 2026 expected to be warmer than 2025.
• Forecasts are preliminary due to the 'spring barrier', requiring careful consideration.

Why It Matters: El Niño's potential return in 2026 threatens India's monsoon, agriculture, and could bring record heat.