China's Tech Ambitions: Will 'New Quality Productive Forces' Hollow Out Global Industries?

• China's 15th Five-Year Plan (2026-2030) targets 7% R&D growth, focusing on "New Quality Productive Forces" (NQPFs) for technological self-reliance.
• NQPFs include quantum tech, biomanufacturing, hydrogen/nuclear fusion, brain-computer interfaces, embodied AI, and 6G mobile communications.
• The plan aims to maintain manufacturing's 25% share of the national economy while enhancing competitiveness in traditional sectors like steel and petrochemicals.
• China's "hunger-games capitalism" leads to overcapacity and low profit margins (4.5% in manufacturing), exacerbated by state-directed capital.
• The model risks exporting price wars in sectors like solar panels, batteries, and EVs, potentially hollowing out global industrial capacities.