New START Treaty's End: Nuclear Risks Soar as US-Russia Arms Control Fades

• The New START (Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty) between the US and Russia is set to expire on February 5th, 2026, marking the first time in decades without a bilateral nuclear arms control agreement.
• The treaty limited deployed warheads to 1550 and deployed delivery vehicles to 700 for both countries, with verification through on-site inspections and data exchanges.
• Russia suspended notifications and data exchanges in 2023, using the treaty as leverage amidst the Ukraine conflict, while China's growing nuclear arsenal adds further pressure.
• China has explicitly stated its unwillingness to participate in a multilateral nuclear arms control treaty unless major nuclear powers initiate the process and curb their own growth.
• Without New START, both the US and Russia will rely on intelligence, increasing uncertainty and the risk of proliferation as non-nuclear states might pursue their own nuclear ambitions.