Budget 2026: A Reckoning, Not a Break From 2025's Economic Story

• Budget 2026 is seen as an adjustment to Budget 2025's assertions, shifting from expansion to consolidation and promise to performance.
• Public investment remains a priority, but Budget 2026 refines the focus from new projects to completing and monetizing existing ones, emphasizing efficiency.
• Fiscal discipline sharpens in Budget 2026, prioritizing consolidation and long-term stability, contrasting with Budget 2025's defense of higher spending.
• The budget assumes organic demand recovery, potentially underestimating the need for broad-based consumption support, especially in rural and lower-middle-income segments.
• Budget 2026 focuses on targeting and efficiency in welfare policy and institutionalizes industrial policy with greater accountability, but overlooks SME support and comprehensive labor market reforms.