Iran's Security Strategy Backfires: Ideology, Overreach, and Chaos Lead to Crisis

• Iran's ideological obsession with jihadism and Islamism led to aggressive security misadventures, nurturing proxies like Hezbollah, Hamas, and Houthis.
• Massive expenditures on these proxies drained Iran's economy, impeding domestic investments and causing widespread resentment among its youth and middle class.
• Proxies proved to be contingent assets, vulnerable to Israel's countermeasures, leading to their decimation after the October 7 Hamas attack.
• Iran's global partners, Russia and China, offered little support, with Russia preoccupied and China focused on energy security, selling oil at discounted rates.
• The Khamenei regime faces its gravest challenge, with a fiscal crisis, divided elites, diverse opposition, and a narrative rooted in pre-Islamic heritage, potentially leading to a revolution or military dictatorship.

Why It Matters: Iran's ideologically driven security strategy has backfired, leading to economic strain, weakened proxies, and internal unrest.