Khamenei's Death: A Turning Point for Iran, But Regime Ousting is Complex

• Ayatollah Ali Khamenei's death marks a significant shift for Iran and West Asia, removing a leader who held ultimate power for over three decades.
• Despite the vacuum, Iran's system is institutionally deep, built on multiple pillars beyond one man, making immediate collapse unlikely.
• An interim council will govern until the 88-member Assembly of Experts appoints a new Supreme Leader from senior Shia clerics.
• Succession is complex, with several contenders, and a hardline successor is probable, making immediate flexibility towards the West unlikely.
• Khamenei's death is framed as martyrdom, potentially mobilizing supporters and escalating regional conflicts, with global implications for oil and security.