Bangladesh's Volatile Transition: High Stakes for India's Northeast

• Bangladesh faces critical February 2026 elections and a referendum after the 2024 "Monsoon Revolution" toppled Sheikh Hasina's government.
• The elections could lead to pluralism or ideological polarization, with the BNP as a frontrunner and the resurgence of Jamaat-e-Islami raising concerns about conservative Islamism.
• India's Northeast faces significant implications due to Bangladesh's transition, including security risks from renewed militancy and stalled connectivity projects.
• China's growing influence in Bangladesh, including potential involvement in the Lalmonirhat Airbase near India's Siliguri Corridor, is a major security concern for New Delhi.
• India needs a multi-pronged approach: maintaining dialogue, strengthening border security, preserving economic ties, diversifying connectivity, and exercising strategic patience.

Why It Matters: Bangladesh's political future directly impacts India's Northeast security and stability.