Pakistan's Iran Dilemma: Caught Between a Rock and a Hard Place as Regional Tensions Mount

• Pakistan faces a severe dilemma as Iran's internal protests and potential confrontation with the West threaten regional stability, directly impacting its already fragile economic and security situation.
• The 900-kilometer border with Iran, running through Pakistan's restive Balochistan province, risks a transnational Baloch uprising if Iranian Baloch regions revolt, exacerbating Pakistan's long-standing insurgency issues.
• Pakistan's foreign policy of hedging between Gulf Arab states, the US, and China is becoming unsustainable, with increasing pressure to pick a side or provide logistical support in a potential Iran conflict.
• Any escalation in Iran could lead to a refugee crisis, increased cross-border movement of weapons, and sectarian friction, further straining Pakistan's already overwhelmed asylum system and internal stability.
• The Iran crisis could embolden Pakistan's own Baloch insurgency, providing morale and logistical support from Iranian unrest, highlighting the failure of Islamabad's iron-fist tactics in Balochistan.

Why It Matters: Pakistan's long-standing foreign policy of hedging is collapsing as the Iran crisis forces it to confront regional instability.