Rubio Redefines Transatlantic Alliance: A Harder, Conditional Compact Emerges

• US Secretary of State Marco Rubio presented a new vision for the transatlantic alliance at the Munich Security Conference, emphasizing shared heritage over liberal universalism.
• Rubio's speech signaled the end of the post-Cold War rules-based order, asserting that borders, sovereignty, and national interest are paramount.
• The new alliance model is transactional, demanding European alignment with American interests, higher defense spending, and tighter border controls for continued partnership.
• The US will prioritize efficacy defined in Washington, bypassing institutions that constrain American discretion and judging those that fail to produce results as obsolete.
• Europe is recalibrating its risk assessments, with growing calls for greater defense capacity and autonomy, as the era of comfortable dependence on the US ends.