Silent Food Crisis: Fertiliser Disruption as Critical as Oil Shocks

• Fertiliser market tightening poses a silent, global food crisis, often overlooked compared to visible oil shocks.
• Nitrogen fertilisers, especially urea, are crucial for 40-50% of global crop yields, making supply disruptions widespread and political.
• China, the largest urea producer, restricts exports to protect its domestic agriculture, causing global supply shocks and price increases.
• India, the world's largest urea importer, faces significant vulnerability due to its agrarian base, subsidy dependence, and fixed agricultural calendar.
• The crisis unfolds slowly: planting decisions, harvest volumes, and retail prices are affected months later, making its origins politically untraceable.