Iran War Beyond 4 Weeks Risks Global Recession, Warns Neelkanth Mishra

• Neelkanth Mishra, Head of Global Research at Axis Capital and Chief Economist at Axis Bank, highlights the Iran conflict as a significant macro risk for India due to its high reliance on energy imports.
• A prolonged disruption in the region could eliminate approximately 7% of the global energy supply, increasing the likelihood of a worldwide recession if it extends beyond four weeks.
• While initial impacts on growth, inflation, and currency might be one-time, subsequent supply shocks and second-order effects could exacerbate the situation.
• Mishra suggests that markets might need to experience panic before a resolution to the conflict materializes.
• Axis Bank stock was trading at ₹1,221 on the NSE at 9:37 am, showing an increase of over 16% in the last year.