US Mortgage Rates Ease, But 2026 Outlook Dims for Sharp Drops

• 30-year fixed mortgage rates hit 6.15%, lowest in 2025, 76 basis points lower than a year ago.
• Sharp drops below 6% are unlikely in the near term, despite 2025 Federal Reserve rate cuts.
• Federal Reserve expects only one rate cut in 2026, dampening hopes for significant mortgage cost reductions.
• Mortgage rates are tied to 10-year US Treasury yields, which remain elevated at 4.2%.
• Persistent housing supply shortage keeps prices high, making affordability a key concern for buyers.

Why It Matters: Buyers should focus on overall affordability rather than timing rate drops, as significant relief is distant.