Pakistan-Afghanistan Conflict: ICG Warns of Escalation, Retaliation Risks

• ICG report predicts Pakistan-Afghanistan conflict among 10 key escalations by 2026, warning of renewed strikes and strong retaliation.
• Islamabad may strike Kabul again if attacks are traced back to Afghanistan, potentially leading to lethal retaliation despite Taliban being outgunned.
• Diplomatic ties are suspended, trade ceased, and Pakistan's mass deportations of Afghan nationals have angered Kabul.
• Afghan Taliban's strong ties with TTP and closer relations with India fuel Pakistan's suspicion, despite public denials of harboring militants.
• Past clashes include Pakistan's 2025 airstrikes on TTP camps and Taliban's counteroffensive, highlighting ongoing cross-border tensions.

Why It Matters: ICG warns of escalating Pakistan-Afghanistan conflict, citing potential strikes, retaliation, and strained ties.