Wargame: Russia Could Overrun Lithuanian City in 2 Days Amid US Inaction, NATO Hesitancy

• A wargame conducted in Germany found Russia could seize Marijampolė, Lithuania, by October 2026 within two days.
• The scenario assumes US abandonment of NATO and hesitancy from European members like Germany and Poland to deploy troops.
• Russia could achieve this with as few as 15,000 troops, leading to the 'death of NATO' and crumbling of Europe's defenses.
• The wargame used a pretext of a humanitarian crisis in Kaliningrad for the invasion, similar to past Russian actions in Georgia and Ukraine.
• Marijampolė's fall and Russian control of the Suwałki Gap would sever the Baltic states from the rest of Europe.