Crisil: India's Retail Inflation to Hit 4.3% in FY27, Driven by Food Prices

• Crisil projects India's retail inflation to rise to 4.3% in FY27 from an estimated 2.5% in FY26.
• The increase is primarily attributed to the normalisation of food prices and base effects.
• Despite the rise, inflation is expected to remain within manageable levels and RBI's tolerance band.
• The revised CPI series with lower food weighting may limit the extent of the increase and dampen volatility.
• The inflation trajectory could allow RBI to maintain its repo rate pause, focusing on rate cut transmission.