ICICI Bank: Crude Oil at $80 in FY27, India's Deficit Risks Widen Amid West Asia Tensions

• ICICI Bank projects crude oil to average $80 per barrel in FY27, up from $66 last year, due to West Asian geopolitical tensions.
• Escalation in the Middle East conflict and disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz have pushed oil prices above $100 recently.
• Every $10 increase in crude prices raises India's net oil import bill and CAD by $12 billion (0.3% of GDP).
• India's economy is vulnerable as 15% of goods exports and 38% of remittances are linked to West Asia.
• ICICI Bank revised FY27 goods trade deficit to $383 billion and CAD to $60 billion (1.4% of GDP) due to these pressures.