India's FY26 GDP: Strong Growth Projected, Economists Unpack Underlying Trends

• India's FY26 real GDP growth is estimated at 7.4% (up from 6.5% in FY25), driven by services, manufacturing, and investment recovery.
• Nominal GDP growth slows to 8% from 9.8% last year, creating a widening gap with real growth, which has macro and fiscal implications.
• SBI projects GDP growth closer to 7.5% with an upward bias, expecting revisions after the new base year (2022-23) and second advance estimates.
• Per capita national income is estimated to rise by ₹16,025 to ₹2,47,487, signaling resilient demand and a recovery in capital formation.
• HDFC Bank notes slower H2 FY26 growth (6.9%) due to base effects and lower inflation impacting nominal growth, but fiscal targets remain manageable.

Why It Matters: India's FY26 GDP shows robust real growth, but nominal slowdown and fiscal nuances require close monitoring.