JPMorgan's Aziz: US Job Anomaly, Not Geopolitics, Clouds 2026 Global Outlook

• JPMorgan's Jahangir Aziz identifies an unprecedented US employment anomaly as the top risk to the 2026 global economy, not geopolitics.
• A 2025 divergence saw US capital expansion surge while employment declined, a combination unseen in 70 years, threatening consumption.
• JPMorgan's 2% US growth forecast for 2026 relies on employment converging with capital expansion; sustained job weakness is a concern.
• Aziz notes a significant shift in US foreign policy towards 'spheres of influence' and highlights EU carbon taxes as a market catalyst.
• For India, Aziz points to the persistent failure of private corporate investment (stuck at 12% of GDP) as a core structural challenge.

Why It Matters: US employment anomaly and India's private investment woes pose significant risks to global and regional growth.