Trump's 500% Tariff Threat Unlikely to Halt India's Russian Crude Imports: Kpler

• Kpler predicts India will maintain Russian crude imports at 1.1-1.3 million bpd in January, despite Trump's 500% tariff threat, unless the Indian government intervenes.
• A 500% US tariff would fundamentally alter procurement, requiring clear policy guidance from the Indian government to stop imports.
• India has alternatives like Middle Eastern, US, and West African crude, but switching would mean losing discounted oil and facing higher import costs.
• Disruption could lead to India focusing on term contracts, diversification, and refinery optimisation to manage risks and costs.
• The threat follows US Senator Lindsey Graham's announcement of a bipartisan Russian sanctions Bill, approved by Trump, targeting countries buying discounted Russian oil.

Why It Matters: India's Russian oil imports likely to continue in Jan despite US tariff threat, pending government policy.